Will Prigozhin's prophecy come true?
Before his fiery death, the Russian warlord predicted gloom and doom for Russia
“You better kill me, but I have to be honest: Russia is on the brink of catastrophe. If little cogs aren’t regulated today, the plane will disintegrate in midair.”
Thus spoke Yevgeny Prigozhin — warlord, criminal, and, as it turned out, prophet of his own demise this past summer.
The video of Prigozhin’s words made the rounds on social media among Russian users in the weeks following his death. People to joked that Vladimir Putin, who ordered Prigozhin’s death following the latter’s failed mutiny, had picked the means of assassination out of a sense of poetic justice.
The brutal news cycle has since overtaken both Prigozhin’s death and his inadvertent prophecy. In recent days, I have come back to it, however. Here’s why:
As my former colleague Mark Galeotti pointed out at the time, however flashy Prigozhin’s death was, it did little to solve Putin’s problems. Today, the Russo-Ukrainian war is at a stalemate. This is horrible because Ukrainians continue dying, but from Moscow’s point of view, it’s horrible because the Kremlin can’t achieve its genocidal goals.
Speaking of Moscow, rumors that Russia’s Central Bank is exhausting its efforts to keep the Russian economy afloat continue to circulate there. Due to obvious safety concerns, I can’t name my sources, but I was startled by a conversation I had recently, in which a source pointed out that it will be “open season” on Russia’s Central Bank soon. The same Central Bank that’s been working to save the Russian economy amid war and sanctions and capital flight and so on. This, he says, will happen not due to rational reasons, but because the Kremlin “needs a patsy.”
Seems crazy to act this way in an economically precarious situation, but fascist autocracies are frequently crazy.
Even if Prigozhin is no longer here to make sarcastic videos about the war and otherwise taunt the Russian military, his work is being done for him. Often by Russians themselves.
Prigozhin’s killing was a reminder to Russia’s elite to stay in line and do what they’re told no matter what. Last year’s suspected poisoning of oligarch Roman Abramovich is part of the same pattern. The problem with constant terror, however, is that it can make people feel cornered and desperate — eroding the old contracts between Putin and his so-called elites.
In recent months, I’ve repeatedly been asked why I, personally, believe that the Kremlin killed Prigozhin. It’s so obvious as to be laughable, but for people not in the know, I tend to refer them back to the Kremlin’s official denial.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, is not regarded as a power player in the Russian elite and would not have had any clue that any such assassination was planned. The Kremlin’s spokesman will always say whatever the Kremlin wants him to say, without being part of any actual Kremlin strategy. His cynical role is to be window dressing.
From the start, it was notable that real power players — including, for example, PM Mikhail Mishustin and secretary of the security council Nikolai Patrushev — abstained from any proclamations on the subject. As rapper Lil Wayne helpfully reminds us, real G’s move in silence. There is no reason for men who are actually close to Putin to ever speak the obvious. Certainly not for as long as Putin remains in power.
The concept of Russia as a mafia state is often criticized for being overplayed — life is not like the Godfather movies — but if anything, I still think about Putin’s calm remarks about Prigozhin in the immediate wake of his death, on how Prigozhin was a “talented man” who had a “difficult fate.” These words spoke for themselves. These were not the words of an elder statesman, these were the words of someone who wanted to make a point, and the point was that, “Prigozhin made me do it.”
Much like many Russian functionaries, including those in the Central Bank, Prigozhin initially thought he had a deal with the Kremlin when he allowed Wagner forces to suffer catastrophic losses in taking the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut (which now lies in ruins, a symbol of chaos and death exported by Russia). He launched a mutiny when he correctly surmised that the Russian Ministry of Defense still held more sway with Putin than he did, even as Prigozhin had begged the ministry for ammunition.
Putin then appeared to strike a deal with Prigozhin again, by pretending to forgive and forget that the mutiny took place, and allowing Prigozhin to stay alive. The deal turned out to be as worthless as the previous one.
The fact that Putin can’t be trusted is plain to see, which is why Western commentators who today insist on a ceasefire are wrong. Yet what’s also important is Putin’s lack of regard for people who have shed blood and/or destroyed their reputations in order to be loyal to him.
For the Russians most invested in this war and its fascist vision, Ukraine’s continued resistance must be especially embittering months after Prigozhin’s death, because he had been a man of action. By contrast, pampered Ministry of Defense officials have enjoyed no such reputation. No one has stepped in to fill Prigozhin’s shoes. And while he’s a monster to normal people, the people pursuing this war on the Russian side are not normal. They needed their firebrand, and they don’t have one anymore. What they do have are dark clouds gathering.
There are times in history when things feel uncertain and all you can ask is, “Who’s flying this plane?” This question is especially pertinent for Russians today. Putin has fought to show that he’s still the boss, but the deadly costs of his mistakes have long been piling up and history shows that governments that fully embrace fascism have a habit of being eaten alive by the very attack dogs they unleash.
Prigozhin may have predicted his own death, but he also predicted something else: A catastrophic and richly deserved loss for Russia, should people not listen to him.
Well, his vision deserves to be made into reality. Let’s hope Russian officials help out on that front as they continue to search for patsies, and let’s hope that my source is correct, and that the Central Bank’s annoyingly competent leadership will be among those patsies soon.